![]() Today, InnoGames begins the season of Spring and Easter-in-game events: For the first time, the “Phoenix Cult” event in Elvenar will run on both mobile and online versions of the fantasy strategy game until April 12th. ![]() Maybe I'm just really unlucky.The sun is shining at InnoGames: Spring and Easter events are set to bloom in Elvenar, Forge of Empires and Grepolis A little better, but still pretty far from 16-20%. I am not at all clinging to the Gambler's Fallacy.Īs of this post, I am now up to 2 for 32. I do not expect "cumulative" chances or anything like what you're ascribing to me. ![]() 0 or 1 would be very unlucky.Įspecially when the chance of success is more than 16% some of the time - 18% or 20%.Īs of this post, I am now up to 2 for 32. Yes, you might get only 2 if you're unlucky, or maybe 5 if you're lucky. The actual average is 3.84, but of course, there's no such thing as 0.84 of a success. If you do something that has a 16% chance of succeeding each time, and you do it 24 times, you'd expect 3-4 successes. If I only got 1 heads on 24 tosses, that would be very, very unusual - about 0.000012% chance of only one heads in 24 tosses, assuming a fair (50/50) coin. Sure, I might get only 10 or 11 heads, or maybe 13-14 heads. If I toss a coin 24 times, chances are that I'll get heads 12 times. I am not at all clinging to the Gambler's Fallacy. Click to expand.I understand percentages completely.
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